Consumer Confidence Surveys Send Mixed Messages
Consumer Reports Sentiment Index is a monthly measure of the economy from the consumers perspective. The most recent survey reveals that those making more than $100K estimate their economic recovery began 18 months ago, in February 2010. Those making $50K to $100K say it took much longer, until January of 2011. As for those earning less than $50K a year, theyve yet to see a positive change in their financial situation since bottoming out in October of 2009.
The Associated Press-GfK survey suggests some similar sentiments. Four out of 5 people believe the economy is in poor shape; 36 percent say very poor shape. On the other hand, 3 out of 5 respondents say the financial situation of their own households is good.
But how much weight do surveys like these really carry?
As one commenter notes on The Consumerist story about the Consumer Reports Sentiment Index:
This whole thing seems stupid to me. They make it seem scientific and I thought it actually used data comparing purchasing power or something else but this is just a measurement of sentiment which means nothing.
So a few more wealthier families feel like theyre doing ok now so what? All that could mean is that theyve given up worrying about losing their jobs and are stable. Doesnt mean their actually getting richer.
On the surface, consumer sentiment may mean nothing, but considering how much our economy relies on consumer spending to fuel recovery, sentiment means a lot. The more confident consumers are about their financial situation, and that of the economy overall, the more theyre going to spend and, in turn, the more its going to fuel recovery.
That said, I do have some misgivings about surveys like this. For instance, the Associated Press-GfK survey is based on responses from just 1,001 Americans across the nation. Can this small sampling really provide an accurate picture of what Americans as a whole are really thinking?
Im a sucker for surveys, though, and no doubt will continue suspending my disbelief, hopeful theres some truth to all this.
How much stock do you put in surveys?
June 24, 2011
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Posted by Luca Julius
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